Due to the abrupt resignation of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, there was a small brouhaha about the possibility of Taro Aso (former Foreign Minister and former Secretary General of the Liberal Democratic Party) becoming the next Prime Minister. Shortly after Prime Minister Abe’s resignation, Aso-san was considered to be the frontrunner in the election for the next LDP president.
One result of this brouhaha was the reaction of Japan’s stock market. Here is an excerpt of a BBC article from Sept. 12 (thanks to Christian…a member of the St. Louis Bon Odori Club as is Rachel…for the link):
“While the main Tokyo market fell after Mr Abe’s resignation, manga-linked stocks like publisher Broccoli rose.
The Nikkei 225 index of the largest Japanese shares fell 0.5% as political uncertainty led investors to drop out of the market until the situation became clearer.
But investors pounced on manga publishers and bookshops selling the fantastical cartoon strips.
Shares in second-hand bookshop Mandarake jumped 13% to 436,000 yen ($3,817; £1,879), while manga publisher Broccoli also gained, up 71% to close at 157 yen.
‘We are happy to receive people’s attention this way,’ said Kenichi Saito, a Mandarake store manager in Tokyo.”
The reason for this is that Aso-san is a big manga fan. In fact, he had acquired the nickname, “Rozen Aso”, because he is a fan of the Rozen Maiden manga (another version from the Watashi to Tokyo blog says “he is called ‘Rozen Aso’ because he was seen when he read Rozen Maiden in ANA’s VIP room in Narita airport.”).
Anyway, this stock boom lasted until former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda entered the race and gained the support of several LDP heavyweights like Sadakazu Tanigaki, a former Finance Minister. Fukuda-san quickly became the frontrunner in the race for the LDP presidency. This caused the anime/manga stocks to settle down (from a Sept. 17 ANN story):
“Used manga retailer Mandarake’s stock dropped 6% on Thursday and 5% on Friday, erasing much of Wednesday’s 12.95% gain. Character goods maker Broccoli’s stock rose 71% from 92 to 157 yen on Wednesday, but it fell to 94 yen by week’s end. “
Aso-san himself said that he did not expect to win. From the Associated Press (via the Boston Globe), he told an NHK interviewer:
“Yes, but if I drop out, the party would be criticized as having chosen a prime minister through back room deals,” Aso said on public broadcaster NHK. “I have decided to run if only for the sake of holding an open election.”
And as expected, on Sept. 23, Yasuo Fukuda won the LDP presidency. He had 330 votes; Taro Aso had 197 votes; there was one invalid vote. The votes were cast by the LDP’s 387 Diet members and by representatives from the party’s 47 prefectural chapters (which were given 3 votes each). As hinted in this article’s title, this was the third time Aso-san has tried to become Prime Minister…the first time was in 2001 (Junichiro Koizumi was the winner) and the second was in 2006 (Shinzo Abe was the winner).
Some readers may be wondering why I am writing about the election for the next LDP president. For those familiar with how the Japanese government operates, skip to the next paragraph. Japan is a constitutional monarchy with Emperor Akihito as head of state. Japan uses a parliamentary form of government. The Legislative branch is called the Diet and consists of two houses. The lower house is the House of Representatives. The upper house is the House of Councilors. Note: On July 29, in elections for half the seats in upper house, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) was able to take control of the House of Councilors. This was considered one of the worst setbacks for the LDP in the 50+ years of the party’s history and was probably the straw that broke the camel’s back for Abe-san and lead to his resignation. The Executive branch reports to the Diet and is headed by the Prime Minister who appoints a cabinet. The Prime Minister is elected by the Diet and appointed by the Emperor. If the two houses split on their choice for Prime Minister and cannot agree on a common candidate, then the House of Representatives candidate becomes the Diet’s choice…which essentially means that the House of Representatives elects the Prime Minister. Since the LDP still controls the lower house, this means that the Prime Minister will almost certainly be an LDP member. Finally, it is usually the president of the LDP that becomes the Prime Minister…thus winner of the LDP presidential election will be the next Prime Minister. Okay, civics lesson is over…
How did Aso-san go from being the frontrunner to an also-ran in such a short time? We, of the foreign anime/manga community, know of him primarily for his being a fan of manga and his work as Foreign Minister to use Japanese pop culture as one way to promote Japan. The latter included the use of Barefoot Gen at a nuclear non-proliferation meeting, the establishment of the International Manga Award, and the Ministry’s co-sponsoring of the most recent World Cosplay Summit.
More generally, he comes from a respected political family. His grandfather, Shigeru Yoshida, who during his tenure as Prime Minister, negotiated the peace treaty officially ending World War II (Treaty of San Francisco - 1951). His father-in-law was also a prime minister and his sister is married to a cousin of Emperor Akihito.
However, there were several factors working against him:
- Aso-san is considered to be conservative, even by LDP standards. Like Abe-san, he has advocated a hard line policy toward North Korea and a continued close relationship with the United States. The fact that much of his policy views are similar to Abe-san’s may have hurt Aso-san’s chances in the election. Fukuda-san was viewed as being a more conciliatory candidate. From the Christian Science Monitor, Ellis Krauss, professor of Japanese politics and policymaking at the University of California, San Diego believes:
“The party didn’t think they could recover from the disastrous Abe administration without someone very different and not identified with Abe.”
- His undisguised ambition to become Prime Minister also made him unpopular among many of the LDP factions. When Fukuda-san announced his candidacy, other potential candidates immediately dropped out and announced their support for Fukuda-san. Most of the major factions also supported Fukuda-san, who had become the candidate for the “anyone-but-Aso” campaign (dubbed that by Makota Koga, leader of the LDP’s third largest faction).
- There were rumors that Aso-san had actually manipulated Abe-san into resigning (DongA.com - Abe Says I Was Betrayed by Aso). Even if the rumors were not true, they were given some validity due to Aso-san’s ambition.
There is also the matter of the many controversial comments he has made…for example:
- “Regular-quality (Japanese) rice is sold at about 16,000 yen per (60-kg) bag here. But it can sell for 78,000 yen in China,” Aso told a speech in Takaoka, Toyama Prefecture, Thursday. “Which, 16,000 yen (or) 78,000 yen, is more expensive? Even people with Alzheimer’s disease could understand.” (Japan Times - Aso gaffe slights Alzheimer’s patients)
- “(Taiwan’s) democracy is considerably matured and liberal economics is deeply ingrained, so it is a law-abiding country,” he said. “In various ways it is a country that shares a sense of values with Japan.” (BBC News - Japan-China row turns to Taiwan) This upset the Chinese (PRC) government since Japan had agreed in 1972 that there is one China…meaning Taiwan is part of China and not an independent country.
- “Japan is doing what Americans can’t do,” local media quoted Mr Aso as saying in a speech about Japan-sponsored investment in the Middle East. “Japanese are trusted. It would probably be no good to have blue eyes and blond hair. Luckily, we Japanese have yellow faces” and had “never been involved in exploitation there, or been involved in fights or fired machine guns”. (Guardian Unlimited - Blue eyes, blond hair: that’s US problem, says Japanese minister)
- Minister Aso told reporters, “maybe I’m saying this from my dogmatic prejudice, but the way I see it the best country in the world would be a country where the richest Jewish people would want to live. Or it could be Armenians, or overseas Chinese, or any group around the world criticized for being rich.” (ADL Calls Japanese Economics Minister’s Remarks About Jews, Others Inappropriate)
What about Yasuo Fukuda? He spent his early years as a salaryman working at an oil company rising to the post of section chief over a 17 year career. His first major involvement with politics occurred when his father Takeo Fukuda became Prime Minister (1976 - 1978). He became a political secretary in his father’s administration. He remained with his father as a private secretary after his father returned to being a regular member of the House of Representatives (1979 - 1989). His own elected political career then began where he took over his father’s seat. He has been elected to the House of Representatives from 1990 to the present. During that time, like his career in oil, he has risen through the ranks which has culminated in his becoming the 91st Prime Minister of Japan.
While Fukuda-san is not as controversial as Aso-san, he hasn’t been able to completely avoid scandal. He was Chief Cabinet Secretary from 2000 - 2004 under two Prime Ministers ( Yoshiro Mori and Junichiro Koizumi). He was the longest serving Chief Cabinet Secretary in Japanese history and probably would have been in that office longer had he not been involved in a scandal related to the Japanese Pension system.
Also, Fukuda-san’s image as a “party elder known for his dovish foreign policy and quiet political know-how” (Wahington Post - Party Elder To Be Japan’s New Premier) may not be completely accurate. The following contrarian view was printed in the Japan Times (‘Shadow’ leader Fukuda combative but seasoned):
“But some insiders who know both Abe and Fukuda very well have questioned media descriptions of Fukuda as being dovish to contrast him with Abe.
‘Fukuda is more of a hardliner. He takes a harder approach than Abe, who takes soft approach (in politics and diplomacy),’ said Raizo Matsuno, a retired Diet member and longtime watcher of politics who died last year.
As Matsuno had predicted, Abe took a soft approach toward China when he became prime minister in September last year. He considerably improved the Sino-Japanese relationship by staging a visit to Beijing right after becoming prime minister in September last year…
…Fukuda is also known from his chief Cabinet secretary days as being a combative, short-tempered politician who often argued with reporters by using cynical and high-handed rhetoric.”
As for Aso-san, he is currently out of ministerial politics…though he is still a member of the House of Representatives. He may get another chance at the premiership, but it may take a while…especially if the LDP loses its majority in the House of Representatives. On the bright side, this should give him more free time for his manga habit.
Photo of Shinzo Abe: Reuters
Photo of Taro Aso and Yasuo Fukuda: AP Photo/Itsuo Inouye
Individual Photos of Taro Aso and Yasuo Fukuda: Reuters/Issei Kato
